Scalable Scenario Analysis Using Global Climate Models
Friday, May 28, 2021
Financial institutions are playing an increasing role in the low-carbon transition by taking steps to accurately estimate, price, and disclose future climate risk. By quantifying their exposure to climate risks, financial institutions can more effectively allocate investments, avoid ‘stranded’ assets, and track adherence to Paris Agreement goals and shareholder commitments. However, it remains difficult for these institutions to assess climate related risks across a portfolio of assets and across different benchmark warming scenarios.I will cover large scale data transformation approaches as part of an end-to-end framework for quantifying annual, asset-level climate risk over multiple climate hazards including wildfires, inland flooding, and heat waves using simulations from global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).We will be discussing techniques to quantify forward looking climate risk from 2020 to 2050 under multiple climate scenarios such as high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) and medium-emissions (SSP2-4.5) warming scenarios. I will also showcase intermediate steps to make the climate simulations and spatiotemporal data interpretable and actionable. We will cover ways to harmonize near real time observations from ground measurements and satellite derived data with forward looking climate risk projections for acute physical hazards for high accuracy predictive modeling.